Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 68425.105017 72385.081746 76351.236778 80618.640993 85077.350767 89595.446754 94516.807781
2025-03-23 62233.846506 68303.869663 74560.955451 81483.403806 88917.850583 96652.735058 105299.013151
2025-03-30 57765.728451 65280.253218 73204.344032 82163.539405 91991.551290 102424.487115 114316.768105
2025-04-06 53959.548445 62509.726894 71700.435093 82282.096378 94095.564457 106844.979265 121610.758358
2025-04-13 50734.360642 60076.712075 70289.896640 82236.759543 95778.900264 110603.041276 128006.545212
2025-04-20 48800.934941 58915.140727 70137.190630 83446.908360 98733.994110 115674.003497 135793.949637
2025-04-27 47112.987739 57897.557591 70026.988083 84595.140578 101528.373169 120500.014460 143268.600360
2025-05-04 45295.538691 56610.739825 69501.386082 85168.081219 103582.317812 124425.279515 149681.683400
2025-05-11 43342.767578 55057.461165 68568.752181 85176.358014 104904.318246 127451.170248 155020.934802
2025-05-18 41684.678042 53771.599243 67875.249769 85395.759914 106414.943639 130654.312940 160543.268013
2025-05-25 40101.399323 52501.458569 67133.070902 85494.670973 107731.149996 133593.538935 165737.251380
2025-06-01 39123.603207 51924.364517 67184.413526 86512.768116 110121.107105 137791.528174 172428.913242
2025-06-08 37506.906134 50510.176766 66182.121557 86228.335808 110936.011703 140131.037891 176951.951530
2025-06-15 36755.322503 50151.746486 66456.707653 87496.550028 113638.356474 144750.970680 184250.965209
2025-06-22 35832.449348 49535.245961 66376.327266 88297.435407 115750.819669 148655.841526 190702.828274
2025-06-29 34662.698887 48555.769361 65799.401108 88441.184434 117022.922734 151522.473696 195891.852588
2025-07-06 33478.136771 47513.154981 65102.617419 88397.169635 118031.887864 154048.769563 200660.327759
2025-07-13 32951.408566 47310.582401 65461.236903 89681.105526 120703.516544 158634.072616 207991.025527
2025-07-20 32427.783862 47089.204697 65777.550759 90898.506017 123288.047352 163120.571781 215225.858785
2025-07-27 31675.655724 46534.077072 65636.153653 91505.836117 125084.892131 166623.504814 221249.972988
2025-08-03 30714.991298 45665.063094 65054.413013 91514.619281 126095.488263 169129.492978 226028.140013
2025-08-10 29891.382686 44956.044029 64659.868405 91747.162621 127379.486923 171975.081891 231241.258286
2025-08-17 29056.432841 44204.692263 64184.835496 91851.995446 128482.207613 174584.002849 236160.502173